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The Toshiba / Westinghouse crisis continues to drag on without any clear resolution in sight. As things stand:
- Toshiba will probably survive in a much-weakened form, assuming it can sell profitable assets to cover debts.
- Profitable parts of Toshiba's US-based nuclear subsidiary Westinghouse will survive in one form or another after a restructuring plan has been developed and approved by the bankruptcy court. Westinghouse might survive in a weakened form or it might be carved up for sale and no longer be a recognizable entity.
- Toshiba would like to sell its entire 90% stake in Westinghouse but that may not be possible.
- Toshiba and Westinghouse will no longer take on reactor construction projects in their home countries or abroad.
- Much of the discussion about the four partially-built AP1000 reactors in the US assumes that one way or another the reactors will be completed. The four reactors ‒ two in Georgia and two in South Carolina ‒ are largely responsible for the crisis facing Toshiba and Westinghouse due to cost overruns of around US$13 billion. But to push ahead would entail enormous risk and it would be no surprise if the owners of the nuclear plants decided to cancel one or both of the reactors at each plant.
- Toshiba / Westinghouse and the NuGen consortium have yet to acknowledge that the plan for three AP1000 at Moorside in the UK is dead ... but it is dead.
- The likelihood that the plan to build AP1000 reactors in India will proceed is vanishingly small.
Toshiba hopes to submit audited financial figures for the 2016/17 fiscal year, which ended 31 March 2017, by August 10.1 Toshiba and its auditor PwC Aarata are still working to reach agreement on the figures and to resolve their disagreement as to whether Toshiba should correct past financial reports.2
On June 23, Toshiba said it expects to report a negative net worth as of 31 March 2017 of ¥581.6 billion (US$5.18 billion), a 7.7% increase on earlier estimates.3 The company's estimated net loss for the 2016/17 fiscal year has also increased, to ¥995 billion (US$8.87 billion).3
Also on June 23, the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) announced that from 1 August 2017, Toshiba shares will be demoted from the exchange's first section to its second tier.2,3 The TSE is also reviewing Toshiba's internal control systems to decide whether to remove the company from the exchange's designation as a "security on alert."2
Toshiba is trying to sell its prize asset, its memory chip business, to stave off bankruptcy and to avoid being delisted altogether from the TSE. But negotiations over the sale of the memory chip business have become complicated, as reported by Nikkei Asian Review:3
"Massive losses from its U.S. nuclear unit plunged the once-mighty Toshiba into negative net worth in fiscal 2016. The company is now desperately trying to raise enough funds to save itself from remaining in negative net worth for a second year ‒ a scenario that would see the company face delisting from the TSE. On Wednesday [June 21], it decided to prioritize negotiations with a Japanese government-led alliance for the sale of its flash memory unit.
"Any conclusion to the deal, however, faces obstacles. Bain Capital, the private equity firm in the alliance, is collaborating with South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix, making a protracted examination into antitrust matters a possibility.
"In addition, Toshiba chipmaking partner Western Digital has sought an injunction against the sale in a California court. With the U.S.-based company weary of the involvement of direct rival SK Hynix, the government-led alliance will have to negotiate with Western Digital, either by asking it to drop the case or trying to include it in the consortium.
"The formation of the alliance was mostly orchestrated by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which wants to keep Toshiba's sensitive chip technologies under domestic control."
Some bankers and potential investors are reportedly pressing the Toshiba board to consider alternatives to the sale of its memory chip business. But selling other assets is problematic as Toshiba has few of sufficient value, and a piecemeal sell-off could take too long.4 Toshiba will be automatically delisted from the TSE if it cannot drag itself out of its negative shareholder equity position by the end of the current fiscal year, ending 31 March 2018.5
In mid-June, Toshiba said it is being jointly sued by 70 shareholders, foreign institutional investors, and individuals seeking damages of ¥43.9 billion (US$391 million) related to a US$1.3 billion profit-padding scandal from 2008‒2014. Separately, Toshiba has been sued by 26 groups and individuals over the scandal with total damages of ¥108.4 billion (US$960 million) being sought.6
There was a moment's respite for Toshiba in early June when its share price rose, partly due to an agreement to cap Toshiba's liabilities for the AP1000 reactor project in Georgia at US$3.68 billion.7 But Toshiba lost all those gains and more and its stock price fell to half what it was before the problems with the US AP1000 projects came to light last December.8
According to a July 3 Reuters report, citing industry and diplomatic sources, the US administration has said that Westinghouse will emerge from Chapter 11 bankruptcy and be sold to a US investor by the end of the year.9
But of course the government can't force investors to buy a bankrupt company. Toshiba has previously tried to sell Westinghouse, without success, and has openly flagged its ongoing desire to rid itself of Westinghouse. But the process is on hold until Westinghouse emerges from Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings with a court-approved restructuring plan.9
According to Reuters: "Some form of U.S. backing or involvement, industry experts say, could avoid a Chinese or Russian buyer unpalatable to Washington, which would prefer to keep Westinghouse's advanced nuclear technology out of the hands of its foreign rivals."9
In court records filed on June 5, the US Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States said that the sale of Westinghouse or its assets could be subject to the panel's review. Consisting of various cabinet members, the Committee is authorized to review transactions which could result in foreign persons or entities acquiring US businesses.10
In May, Westinghouse was in trouble with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) because of problems at its nuclear fuel plant in Columbia, South Carolina.11 After finding an accumulation of uranium in an air pollution control device last year, in May the NRC cited one additional violation related to the same piece of equipment. In June 2017, the NRC issued a notice of non-conformance to Westinghouse over lax quality assurance at its Mangiarotti subsidiary in Italy.12 The problem concerns incorrect use of material for AP1000 passive residual heat removal heat exchanger stiffener plates, identified in an earlier inspection. As with the problem at Columbia, Westinghouse has been slow to act. NRC inspections were carried out at Mangiarotti's plant in Italy in July 2016. Follow-up inspections were carried out at Westinghouse's plant in Rockville, Maryland in April 2017. The NRC concluded that Westinghouse "had not taken prompt corrective action or identified the cause of a significant condition adverse to quality", which involved the use of a different type of stainless steel in the manufacture of the component from that required.12
It has emerged that Toshiba didn't know that Westinghouse was preparing for a bankruptcy filing even after Westinghouse had hired lawyers for the task late last year, according to court records and Toshiba's official timeline. The Wall Street Journal commented: "If Toshiba's timeline is accurate, it suggests poor communication between parent and subsidiary contributed to letting the problems at Westinghouse get out of hand. Toshiba, one of Japan's biggest and oldest conglomerates, has said it has doubts whether it is a going concern because of its unit's bankruptcy. Conversely, if Toshiba did know about the unit's bankruptcy plans ahead of time but failed to disclose them promptly, it could worsen trust among investors at a time when stock-exchange officials in Tokyo are weighing whether to delist Toshiba shares."13
AP1000 reactors under construction in the US
Decisions about the fate of the partially-built AP1000 reactors in Georgia and South Carolina keep being deferred. Westinghouse is expected to break its contracts with the owners of the Vogtle (Georgia) and Summer (South Carolina) plants. Meanwhile the plant owners are weighing up their options regarding the future of the reactors, and paying for work to continue in the meantime. The owners of the South Carolina plant hope to make a decision on the fate of the two AP1000 reactors by August 10.14 And Southern Co. hopes to make a decision about the two reactors in Georgia "sometime in August" according to CEO Tom Fanning.15 But no previous deadlines have been met and the issue is likely to drag on for months.
Georgia Power and Westinghouse have finalized an agreement which allows for the transition of project management at the Vogtle plant from Westinghouse to Southern Nuclear and Georgia Power. Under the agreement, finalized on June 9, Toshiba will meet its contractual obligations by paying Southern Co. US$3.68 billion from October 2017 to January 2021 to help cover the costs of completing the two reactors, while Southern Co. agreed not to ask for more, even if the project continues to run over budget.16 The agreement has been approved by the US Department of Energy, which has a stake in the outcome of the negotiations because it approved a US$8.3 billion loan guarantee for the Vogtle project.
Toshiba may strike a similar agreement with SCANA and Santee Cooper in relation to the two AP1000 reactors under construction in South Carolina. SCANA and Santee Cooper would take responsibility for completing (or abandoning) the reactors, and Toshiba would make a payment to settle contractual obligations.17
On May 15, Toshiba said it had set aside ¥670 billion (US6.0 billion) to cover parent company guarantees for the Vogtle and Summer plants. Thus a payment of US2.3 billion for the South Carolina plant can be expected in addition to the US3.68 allocated for Georgia.
Another modest win for those hoping to complete the reactor projects in Georgia and South Carolina came on June 15 when the House of Representatives approved a bill on tax credits that could amount to around US$2 billion in subsidies for each of the nuclear plants ‒ Vogtle and Summer.18 However the future of the bill in the Senate is uncertain. The owners of the nuclear plants need the tax-credit subsidies locked in, and soon.
Despite the Toshiba agreement with the Vogtle owners, and the House of Representatives' vote on tax credits, the future of the Vogtle and Summer reactors is still very much in doubt.
Construction of the four reactors is less than half complete so there is ample scope for further delays and cost overruns. A report by consultants to the Georgia Public Service Commission found that attempts to improve efficiency have had little success: over the past year, four core activities at the Vogtle plant fell an average of 325 days further behind schedule.19
A recent document written by South Carolina state regulators states: "The projection of
time and costs is made more difficult given the incredible variances in time and costs
actually incurred in comparison to Westinghouse's previous quotes and projections of time
Owners of the nuclear plants are doing their best to estimate the likely costs to complete the four reactors ‒ but it is a guessing game. Analysts at Morgan Stanley say future costs could exceed current estimates by as much as US$8.5 billion, more than double what shareholders of the two companies are effectively pricing in.20
The Southern Alliance for Clean Energy (SACE) estimates that the total cost of the two reactors in Georgia could reach US$29 billion.19 SACE based its estimate on a June 2017 report by two utility consultants to the Georgia Public Service Commission. The consultants' report is based on a scenario in which the project comes online in 2022, and Westinghouse's bankruptcy adds further costs.19
A Morgan Stanley report in March 2017 said the final cost of the two Summer reactors could be as high as US$22.9 billion ‒ double the original estimate.18
Using the SACE figure for Georgia, and the Morgan Stanley figure for South Carolina, the total cost for the four reactors could be US$51.9 billion, more than double the original estimate of US$23.9 billion (US$14.1 billion for Vogtle and US$9.8 billion for Summer).
Nuclear corporations and lobby groups argue that completion of the Vogtle and Summer reactors is a "national security issue" and a "strategic national imperative". Typically, those meaningless assertions are backed up with the meaningless justification that the US will be "left behind" by other countries such as Russia and China if it exits the global nuclear industry. The Nuclear Energy Institute has gone one step further. The industry lobby group has been circulating a document in Washington arguing the case for tax credits to support nuclear power projects. The document states that if the Vogtle and Summer plants aren't completed, it would stunt development of the nation's nuclear weapons complex because the engineering expertise on the energy side helps the weapons side.21
A further complication for the owners of the South Carolina plant is that they learnt in June, much to their astonishment, that Westinghouse's detailed construction schedule for the two reactors is non-existent.18 "I'm just floored that they haven't been able to produce a schedule for their own project," said Tom Clements from Savannah River Site Watch. "That violates a basic tenet of sound construction management, and I think it reveals that there are more problems to be encountered if the project continues."18
Friends of the Earth and the Sierra Club filed a complaint with South Carolina state regulators on June 22, calling for a hearing on whether construction should be allowed to move forward at the Summer plant and whether the utilities should be forced to pay back money customers have already spent through higher rates to build the reactors.18 The South Carolina Public Service Commission approved the groups' request and a hearing is scheduled for August 14 in Columbia.18
The groups call on the Summer plant owners to "cease and desist from expending any further capital costs related to the Project" and referred to "unreasonable electric rates" ‒ in particular, nine electricity rate hikes since 2008 to help fund the Summer project.17
Dr Mark Cooper from the Institute for Energy and the Environment at Vermont Law School has written a detailed paper for Friends of the Earth and the Sierra Club in support of their complaint to the South Carolina Public Service Commission.22 Cooper argues:
"Management will waste more money going forward in a futile attempt to complete the project ... Future costs may be twice as much as the costs that have been sunk. This report outlines five steps that can be taken to soften the negative blow to both SCE&G ratepayers and the economy of South Carolina:
- Stop wasting money by abandoning the project.
- Claw back improperly expended sunk costs through reclamation under the bankruptcy laws and reparation for imprudent costs improperly incurred.
- Return to traditional least-cost, used and useful principles for utility resource acquisition.
- Rely on lower cost, cleaner resources, like efficiency, renewables and dynamic system management to meet any growth in demand or reduction in emission of pollutants.
- Mitigate the bill impact by enhancing ratepayer ability to lower their electricity costs with on-bill financing of efficiency, reducing the profit paid on wasted capital expenses, and extending the period for cost recovery."
Cooper argues that "even under the unjustifiably optimistic projection of no future delays and cost overruns, ratepayers will be better off if the utility abandons the project, even if ratepayers are forced to bear the costs that have been sunk to date." In the best-case scenario, swift action by the Public Service Commission could save ratepayers as much as US$10 billion.
Planned AP1000 reactors in the UK
Numerous media reports over the past six weeks have flagged the possibility that South Korea's Kepco could buy into the NuGen consortium that planned to build three AP1000 reactors at Moorside in the UK. Toshiba would be more than happy to sell most or all of its stake in NuGen to Kepco ‒ or anyone else. But Kepco wants to build its own APR1400 reactors instead of Westinghouse AP1000s. That brings with it another set of problems ‒ financing, the anti-nuclear stance of recently-elected South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and the several years it would take for the APR1400 reactor design to go through a generic design assessment process in the UK. Suffice it here to note that previous plans to build AP1000 reactors at Moorside appear to be stone cold dead.
Planned AP1000 reactors in India
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump issued a communique after their meeting in Washington in late June. The two leaders "looked forward to conclusion of contractual agreements between Westinghouse Electric Company and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India for six nuclear reactors in India and also related project financing," the communique said.23
However there is very little likelihood of contractual agreements, no clarity about financing, no obvious reason why India would pay for Westinghouse reactors when cheaper options are available to meet energy needs, no obvious reason why India would sign up for AP1000 reactors given the massive cost overruns in the US, and an unresolved disagreement about India's nuclear liability law.
Another obstacle is that Westinghouse ‒ assuming that Westinghouse even exists after the bankruptcy process ‒ is exiting the reactor construction business. The Hindu reported: "Westinghouse is working out a new model with its lenders under which they will design the reactor and provide consultations, but Indian companies would be entrusted with the actual construction of the plant. A process is underway to ascertain who will do what in the new business model and which Indian companies could be involved."24
1. Reuters, 13 July 2017, 'Toshiba: Not true auditor told co it can't form opinion on annual report', www.reuters.com/article/us-toshiba-accounting-idUSKBN19Y03K?il=0
2. Nikkei Asian Review, 24 June 2017, 'Toshiba teeters on brink of delisting', http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Toshiba-teeters-on-brink-of-de...
3. Shotaro Tani / Nikkei Asian Review, 23 June 2017, 'Toshiba's negative net worth widens to 5.2 billion dollars', http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Toshiba-s-negative-net-worth-w...
4. 10 July 2017, 'Toshiba need alternative plan quick', www.simmtester.com/page/news/shownews.asp?num=19296
5. 23 June 2017, 'Toshiba asks regulators for extension on annual statement deadline to Aug. 10', www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/06/23/business/corporate-business/toshiba...
6. Kathleen Wirth, 13 June 2017, 'Toshiba Being Sued for $399 Million for Accounting Irregularities', http://wirthconsulting.org/2017/06/13/toshiba-being-sued-for-399-million...
7. Peter Wells, 12 June 2017, 'Toshiba jumps 8% after deal to cap US reactor liability', www.ft.com/content/889d3470-4a72-3039-9450-9602bd2faef1?mhq5j=e3
9. Reuters, 3 July 2017, 'Indo-US nuclear deal: Westinghouse could be sold by Dec, ending bankruptcy, says report', http://indianexpress.com/article/business/companies/westinghouse-could-b...
10. Michael Smith, 7 June 2017, 'Washington weighs in on Westinghouse bankruptcy', www.northaugustastar.com/news/washington-weighs-in-on-westinghouse-bankr... of Form
11. Sammy Fretwell, 8 May 2017, 'Nuclear-safety concerns linger at Westinghouse plant', www.thestate.com/news/local/article149368179.html
12. World Nuclear News, 21 June 2017, 'Westinghouse subsidiary receives notice of non-conformance', www.world-nuclear-news.org/RS-Westinghouse-subsidiary-receives-notice-of...
13. Kosaku Narioka, 8 June 2017, 'Toshiba Unaware Its Nuclear Unit Was Preparing for Bankruptcy, Timeline Shows', Wall Street Journal, www.advfn.com/news_Units-Woes-Stun-Toshiba-Toshiba-Missed-Unit-Woes_7496...
15. Nikkei Asian Review, 13 July 2017, 'US utility to decide fate of Westinghouse reactors in August', http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/US-utility-to-decide-fate-of-W...
16. World Nuclear News, 12 June 2017, 'Vogtle agreement caps Toshiba obligation', www.world-nuclear-news.org/C-Vogtle-agreement-caps-Toshiba-obligation-12...
17. Michael Smith, 23 June 2017, 'Toshiba seeks SCANA, Santee Cooper takeover of V.C. Summer', www.aikenstandard.com/news/toshiba-seeks-scana-santee-cooper-takeover-of...
18. David Wren, 24 June 2017, 'Missing documentation throws Santee Cooper, SCE&G nuclear project timeline, costs in doubt', www.postandcourier.com/news/missing-documentation-throws-santee-cooper-s...
19. Tom Hals, 15 June 2017, 'Group says Georgia nuclear plant costs rise to $29 billion', www.reuters.com/article/us-toshiba-accounting-westinghouse-bankr-idUSKBN...
20. Lauren Silva Laughlin, 28 March 2017, 'Nuclear waste', www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/utilities-to-pay-price-of-westingh...
21. Amy Harder, 16 June 2017, 'Nuclear scramble on tax credits', www.axios.com/nuclear-scramble-on-tax-credits-2442400126.html
22. Mark Cooper, July 2017, 'The Failure of the Nuclear Gamble in South Carolina', www.cleanenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/MarkCooper_VCSummerReport_Final_J...
23. Reuters, 3 July 2017, 'Indo-US nuclear deal: Westinghouse could be sold by Dec, ending bankruptcy, says report', http://indianexpress.com/article/business/companies/westinghouse-could-b...
24. Vikas Dhoot, 28 June 2017, 'Westinghouse's $20 billion nuclear deal needs a reboot', www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/westinghouses-20-billion-nuclear-deal-...